NRL Supercoach Finals Week 1 | Final Word


<p>Time is running out to lock in your NRL Supercoach finals squad.</p>



<p>The new format of Supercoach is fast and furious, with no forward planning; it’s all about the standalone weekend.</p>



<p>There’s no looping to worry about, or auto-emergencies; it’s simply finding the best player in each position that you think will score the most points in week one of finals.</p>



<p>Oh, and don’t screw up your skippers or you’re goonnnnneeeee…</p>



<p>For more information on the game itself and rules, check out my team analysis piece earlier in the week.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Strategy</strong></h3>



<p>I could be wrong – probably will be – but I feel as though the winner of Supercoach finals will be someone who takes a few risks.</p>



<p>I don’t think this is always the case in NRL Supercoach classic across the regular season.</p>



<p>It’s so long that you can play conservatively and finish highly ranked, it’ll often come down to getting captaincy choices right, along with sit v start decisions.</p>



<p>There will be a lot of template teams out there, <strong>Nathan Cleary</strong>,<strong> Payne Haas</strong>,<strong> Cameron Munster</strong> etc.</p>



<p>People will naturally feel the need to go to the players who performed best in the regular season, and that’s fine.</p>



<p>But with only four weeks to peak, and very limited games and players to choose from, you’ll need to go against the pack somewhere.</p>



<p>This isn’t to say you need to go a team of PODs, but it may mean avoiding Munster, or leaving the captaincy off Nathan Cleary, subtle but potentially title-winning decisions.</p>



<p>Most of all, have fun. </p>



<p>The Supercoach season can be fairly exhausting, especially for the fully invested nerds out there like myself, so don’t take Supercoach finals too seriously, and more importantly, don’t let it detract from the love of finals footy itself!</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Match-ups to target</strong></h3>



<p><strong>Penrith’s left edge attack</strong></p>



<p>The Warriors right edge concedes 60% of all their tries, while Penrith’s left edge scores 51% of all their tries.</p>



<p>This brings into calculations <strong>Casey McLean</strong>, <strong>Blaize Talagi</strong> and whoever plays left wing out of Brian To’o and Paul Alamoti, I suspect it’ll be <strong>To’o</strong>.</p>



<p><strong>Brisbane left edge and Canberra’s right edge</strong><strong>&nbsp;attack</strong></p>



<p>Both of these&nbsp;edges are going at the opposite’s weaker edges.</p>



<p>This brings into play <strong>Josiah Karapani</strong> and <strong>Gehamat Shibasaki</strong> for the Broncos, along with <strong>Jamal Fogarty</strong> and <strong>Matt Timoko</strong> for the Raiders.</p>



<p><strong>Cronulla’s middle</strong></p>



<p>The Roosters middle defence conceded the most tries through the middle third by percentage on field of all teams in the competition this season, second in total tries conceded.</p>



<p>This brings into play both <strong>Addin Fonua-Blake</strong> and <strong>Blayke Brailey </strong>who’s chances of jagging some attacking stats enhance.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>POD plays</strong></h3>



<p>It’s hard to know the exact point of difference players, as we only have ownership stats for the top 10 players, but we can have a bit of a stab at those who will be avoided by most.</p>



<p><strong>Stephen Crichton</strong></p>



<p>Critta does technically come up against the Storm’s better defensive edge, but it’s the hybrid fullback-centre role he’s been playing that excites me.</p>



<p>He’s playing plenty of fullback when attacking the opposition line, where his ball playing has delivered numerous attacking stats that he’d otherwise not see.</p>



<p>He’s a proven big game player and will be up for the clash in Melbourne.</p>



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<p><strong>Blaize Talagi</strong></p>



<p>Talagi benefits in attacking the weaker Warriors right edge mentioned above.</p>



<p>The five-eighth position is wide open in week one, with no major standout.</p>



<p>Talagi can go low, but he has the attacking upside to match most.</p>



<p>If the Panthers do win well as many are predicting, it could be via the maestro at No.6.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Captains</strong></h3>



<p>As we know, captain scores are multiplied by three, vice-captains are multiplied by two.</p>



<p>I discussed it across multiple shows during the week, but I feel the safety-first approach to skippers could be the smart play.</p>



<p>The final month of the NRL season is when we see enormous scores as teams that are flying put the sword to decimated sides that have a ticket booked to Bali.</p>



<p>Don’t have short memories, this isn’t going to continue.</p>



<p>NRL finals are a different beast, with the cream of the crop on the field and everything to play for.</p>



<p>The ceiling of the best attackers reduces, while the ball in play will only enhance the workrate of the best forwards.</p>



<p><strong>Payne Haas</strong> seems a lock and load option for me as either C or VC. I’m leaning towards C.</p>



<p>We know he’ll get through mountains of work in big minutes and should punch out 75+ in his sleep.</p>



<p>This might not seem huge, but when it’s safe as houses and multiplied by three, you’ll sleep well across the weekend.</p>



<p>If he finds some attacking stats that could easily be 100+.</p>



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<p><strong>Nathan Cleary</strong> looms as a logical VC, but I also feel the Warriors are going to put up a huge fight at home with no expectations.</p>



<p>There’s also a huge opportunity to go against him.</p>



<p>The other VC options for me come down to <strong>James Tedesco</strong> and <strong>Reece Walsh</strong>.</p>



<p>Teddy will work his backside off and should score 50-60 in base and power alone before any major attack is added.</p>



<p>If the ruthless Roosters attack does catch fire, he could easily go 100+.</p>



<p>Walsh is, as always, the wildcard.</p>



<p>He scored 9 points in Canberra in round 2 and had a calf complaint at training earlier in the week.</p>



<p>He also finished the season with four of five scores over 134 points…</p>



<p>It’s risky against the minor premiers who could win the middle and limit Walsh’s time and space, but the upside could set you up for the whole finals.</p>



<p>Haas and Cleary for me as it stands.</p>


NRL Supercoach Finals Week 1 | Final Word

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