NRL Supercoach Grand Final | Final Word


<p>The NRL grand final is just days away, and with it comes the culmination of the NRL Supercoach finals.</p>



<p>It’s been a fun initiative by those at SC HQ to add some spice to the finals.</p>



<p>Unlike the regular season that takes plenty of emotional investment (for us SC nerds) and planning ahead, the finals format is fast and fun.</p>



<p>Simply aiming to pick the top-scoring players in each position each week is a lot less strenuous than prepping for a major bye period three months in advance and guessing at potential restings down the track.</p>



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<p>The big guns have stood up for the most part throughout the finals series, while anyone who took a punt on Paul Alamoti will be thriving.</p>



<p>Alamoti has defined the Supercoach finals series, having top-scored the past two weeks at low-ownership.</p>



<p>Let’s take a look at the Final Word ahead of the NRL grand final.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Match-ups to target</strong></h3>



<p><strong>Brisbane’s left edge attack at Melbourne’s right edge defence</strong></p>



<p>Brisbane’s left edge scored a whopping 52% of all their tries, compared to just 30% on their right.</p>



<p>This aligns perfectly with Melbourne’s right edge, which concedes 47% of all their tries and has had defensive issues for a while now.</p>



<p>This brings into contention <strong>Ben Hunt (until Mam comes on), Brendan Piakura, Gehamat Shibasaki, and Josiah Karapani.</strong></p>



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<p><strong>Melbourne&#8217;s right edge attack at Brisbane’s left edge defence</strong></p>



<p>Rather than heavy statistical differences, this is more eye test than anything.</p>



<p>Brisbane concede 41% of tries on both edges, but I feel their left edge is the more vulnerable side.</p>



<p>This will also be impacted by Ezra Mam switching with Ben Hunt late in the first half.</p>



<p>This brings into contention Melbourne’s already elite right-edge attack of<strong> Jahrome Hughes, Eliesa Katoa, Nick Meaney, and Will Warbrick.</strong></p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>POD plays</strong></h3>



<p>It’s hard to know the exact point of difference players, as we only have ownership stats for the top 10 players, but we can have a bit of a stab at those who will be avoided by most.</p>



<p>Kotoni Staggs and Ryan Papenhuyzen went solid last week; let’s hope this week’s pick can add another digit to their score.</p>



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<p><strong>Gehamat Shibasaki</strong></p>



<p>As per the stats above, I feel Shibasaki has one of the best match-ups in the game.</p>



<p>I’m not sure if points will flow, or if it’ll be a low-scoring affair.</p>



<p>However, if it is a tighter contest, it’ll naturally mean the CTW options could all go very low.</p>



<p>This is where Shibasaki will thrive as he’ll get through plenty of work and should base and power his way to 40-50 points.</p>



<p>He’s averaging 69 points across his two finals games and had an absurd 27 runs and 9 tacklebreaks in the extra time clash with the Raiders.</p>



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<p><strong>Stefano Utoikamanu</strong></p>



<p>I think Stefano is a huge play this week, in the flex position…</p>



<p>I wouldn’t be selecting him at the expense of Payne Haas, but you can have both.</p>



<p>He’s been exceptional in the finals so far, averaging 75.5 points across two games without a major attacking stat.</p>



<p>Look back to week one of finals, he had 32 tackles, 17 runs, nine tacklebreaks, and four offloads!</p>



<p>He lit the fuse earlier in the week, let’s see if he can back it up.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Captains</strong></h3>



<p>I’ve mentioned throughout the week that captaincy choice this week will be dictated by your goal for a final ranking and where you’re currently ranked.</p>



<p>For that reason, the nature of selections will differ for everyone.</p>



<p>For example, if you’re first overall, you’re probably not going to take a flyer on Jahrome Hughes, if you’re 20,000th overall, it probably won’t do you much good going Payne Haas.</p>



<p>Generally speaking though, <strong>Payne Haas </strong>is the man.</p>



<p>He’s as hungry as I’ve seen him as he eyes a maiden NRL premiership.</p>



<p>He played 80 minutes last week and may do so again on Sunday evening.</p>



<p>He’ll base and power his way to 80-odd points, if he adds any major attacking stats, he’ll go 100+.</p>



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<p><strong>Reece Walsh</strong> is my second pick.</p>



<p>He could win the Clive Churchill Medal with a grand final performance for the ages, or everything could go wrong and he leaves Olympic Park with his tail between his legs.</p>



<p>Regardless, he’ll find major attacking stats, and Supercoach favours the big plays far more than it punishes errors.</p>



<p>While he has sub-50 scores in him, he’s also never been in form like this, and the upside is unmatched in this contest.</p>



<p>I wouldn’t touch any other Broncos players as captains, while there’s nothing between the Storm’s superstar spine.</p>



<p>You could easily make a case for Ryan Papenhuyzen, Cam Munster, Jahrome Hughes, and Harry Grant.</p>



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<p>Already a Clive Churchill Medal winner, I feel <strong>Lil Papy</strong> is the best flyer of the match as he’ll likely be lowly owned and very lowly skippered.</p>



<p><strong>Harry Grant</strong> is the safer play and is my tip for man-of-the-match honours if the Storm win.</p>



<p>He’s only scored okay in the opening finals games, so I don’t think many will opt for the best number nine in rugby league.</p>



<p><strong>Eliesa Katoa</strong> is also a serious play running at Hunt/Mam and will belt out 80+ if he can score or assist a try.</p>


NRL Supercoach Grand Final | Final Word

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