EPL Supercoach Strategy Talk | Stop playing safe

<p>Have to consider impact of blank and double gameweeks later in season. I would suspect Arsenal and Man City are favourites to be EFL cup finalists so they (and both their opponents) would not play GW31 which is either leaving you short or burning precious trades </p>


<p>The risk to loading up on 3 teams is when it comes to the blanks and doubles and all your Arsenal defenders are out on a blank Gameweek due to cup fixture. It’s probably expected that Man City and Arsenal will be the finalists of the EFL cup now at semi final stage so those 2 teams and their opponents won’t play GW31</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>A Rank Jump I&#8217;ll Never Forget</strong></h3>



<p>I was in a Bangkok shopping mall, struggling through something far too spicy for my taste buds, when I came across FPL_Brandon&#8217;s tweet on correlated variance in FPL. </p>



<p>Gameweek 13 was a popular Free Hit week with a clear template: 3× Villa, 3× Brentford, 3× City, maybe a couple from Liverpool or Palace. </p>



<p>The consensus was spreading players across positions from each team &#8211; one defender, one mid, one forward. </p>



<p>Safe. Sensible. Boring.</p>



<p>It flipped my thinking. </p>



<p>Instead of spreading, I went 3× Villa defenders and 3× Brentford mids/attackers.</p>



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<p>Villa kept a clean sheet. Brentford didn&#8217;t. </p>



<p>I had Dango when almost nobody else did &#8211; he returned a goal and an assist. </p>



<p>I went from 140k to 7k overall rank thanks to a weekly rank of 92, easily my best ever.</p>



<p>Was I lucky? Yes &#8211; Villa should have conceded, and Brentford were unlucky to let in a goal. </p>



<p>However, I put myself in a position to get lucky. </p>



<p>This got me thinking about Supercoach EPL.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Why Supercoach EPL Changes the Game</strong></h3>



<p>Supercoach EPL operates under completely different rules to FPL, and that changes everything about defensive stacking.</p>



<p><strong>No Team Restrictions</strong></p>



<p>FPL caps you at three players per team. </p>



<p>Supercoach has no such restriction.</p>



<p>If you want to run 5× Arsenal players, nobody&#8217;s stopping you. </p>



<p>This opens up stacking opportunities that simply don&#8217;t exist in FPL.</p>



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<p><strong>The Budget Surplus Problem</strong></p>



<p>Right now, everyone in Supercoach EPL is sitting on massive budgets. </p>



<p>Price rises have inflated team values across the board. </p>



<p>You don&#8217;t need to find value anymore &#8211; you can just pick the best players from the best teams without sacrificing elsewhere. </p>



<p>When you&#8217;re not constrained by budget, why wouldn&#8217;t you load up on Arsenal&#8217;s backline or City attackers?</p>



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<p><strong>Clean Sheets Aren&#8217;t Zero-Sum</strong></p>



<p>In AFL and NRL Supercoach, attack is often zero-sum within a team. </p>



<p>When one winger scores, it frequently means the other winger didn&#8217;t. </p>



<p>They&#8217;re competing for the same opportunities.</p>



<p>Defence operates completely differently. </p>



<p>When Arsenal keeps a clean sheet, all your Arsenal defenders benefit. </p>



<p>They succeed or fail together &#8211; there&#8217;s no internal competition. </p>



<p>This correlation is the entire point of the strategy.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Maths: Why Triple Stacking Actually Works</strong></h3>



<p>Here&#8217;s the bit where I get nerdy. </p>



<p>If you just want the play, skip ahead. </p>



<p>But if you want to understand why this works, here&#8217;s the breakdown.</p>



<p>Three defenders, all cost the same, 6 points for a clean sheet. Three different approaches:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Strategy</td><td>Likelihood 0 CS</td><td>Likelihood 1 CS</td><td>Likelihood 2 CS</td><td>Likelihood 3 CS</td><td>Expected Points</td></tr><tr><td>3 players, 3 different teams (30% each)</td><td>34%</td><td>44%</td><td>19%</td><td>3%</td><td>5.4</td></tr><tr><td>3 players, 1 team (30%)</td><td>70%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>30%</td><td>5.4</td></tr><tr><td>3 players, Arsenal (40%)</td><td>60%</td><td>0%</td><td>0%</td><td>40%</td><td>7.2</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p><strong>Option 1</strong> is the safe play &#8211; you&#8217;ll probably get one clean sheet most weeks. Predictable. Boring.</p>



<p><strong>Option 2</strong> is boom or bust with the same expected value. You blank 70% of the time, but when you hit, you&#8217;re getting 18 points. Notice those 0% in the middle &#8211; when you stack one team, you can&#8217;t get 1 or 2 clean sheets. It&#8217;s all or nothing.</p>



<p><strong>Option 3</strong> is where it clicks. You&#8217;re not just accepting boom or bust &#8211; you&#8217;re improving your expected value by 33% while maintaining that explosive upside. Arsenal&#8217;s 40% clean sheet odds mean you&#8217;re banking 18 points four weeks out of ten, while everyone else is scrambling for 6 clean sheet points spread across their backline.</p>



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<p>Yes, you blank 60% of the time. But you&#8217;re not playing to come 500th. </p>



<p>Arsenal have the best defence in the league. Back the best.</p>



<p><strong>Quick caveat:</strong> Clean sheets aren&#8217;t the only way defenders score points. </p>



<p>We&#8217;ve seen with Munoz how attacking stats can be just as important. </p>



<p>But with him out injured, I&#8217;m hoping to get a leg up by chasing clean sheet points while the elite attacking defender sits on the sidelines.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>What I&#8217;m Actually Doing: 3× Arsenal Defenders</strong></h3>



<p>Here&#8217;s my setup: Raya, Timber, and Saliba. </p>



<p>Three Arsenal assets anchoring my defence.</p>



<p>My other defenders are Dias, Cucurella, and van Dijk &#8211; what I reckon are the top four teams in the league. </p>



<p>The weekly strategy is simple: play all three Arsenal defenders plus whoever has the best clean sheet odds out of City, Chelsea, or Liverpool. </p>



<p>And if Arsenal ever have a crazy hard fixture, or someone might not start, I have amazing backup &#8211; not some Burnley player. </p>



<p>This means I&#8217;m never fielding a bad defender. </p>



<p>Every week, I&#8217;m playing four elite defenders from teams with the highest probability of keeping clean sheets.</p>



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<p><strong>How&#8217;s it going?</strong></p>



<p>Not great, if I&#8217;m being honest.</p>



<p>Arsenal conceded a late goal to Wolves. How? </p>



<p>I had Dias (15) and van Dijk (13) sitting on my bench watching the show. </p>



<p>And to top it off, I traded out Rogers (24) instead of Woltemade (-4).</p>



<p>Week one of this strategy kind of sucked, and I slid down the rankings. </p>



<p>But this is boom or bust. </p>



<p>As long as Arsenal are as good as everyone expects them to be, I&#8217;ll end up with more points in the long term. </p>



<p>One week doesn&#8217;t change the thesis.</p>



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<p><strong>My trades this week:</strong></p>



<p>Rage trade alert &#8211; Ekitike in for Woltemade. </p>



<p>I do like Newcastle&#8217;s fixtures from GW19 onwards, but I just can&#8217;t stare at that -4 any longer. </p>



<p>Sometimes you need to move on.</p>



<p>KDH is out for 4-6 weeks. </p>



<p>What a hero he&#8217;s been, but being injured means he&#8217;s gone. </p>



<p>Going to Rice, Cherki, or O&#8217;Reilly &#8211; haven&#8217;t decided yet.</p>



<p>This leaves my team looking absolutely stacked. </p>



<p>Only Cucurella, Minteh, Xhaka, and Fernandes aren&#8217;t coming from Arsenal, City, or Liverpool. And honestly? </p>



<p>This game is simple &#8211; pick good players from good teams.</p>



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<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The Play</strong></h3>



<p>You&#8217;ve got the budget surplus. Use it. </p>



<p>Stack the best defence in the league and accept you&#8217;ll cop it some weeks. </p>



<p>The maths works over time, but only if you commit to it.</p>



<p>Stop playing it safe. </p>



<p>Back Arsenal&#8217;s defence three times over and ride the variance. </p>



<p>You&#8217;re not here to finish mid-table.</p>


EPL Supercoach Strategy Talk | Stop playing safe

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