BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 6


<p>In recent years, models have arisen in Fantasy Premier League, utilising bookies&#8217; odds to predict fantasy points. </p>



<p>We’re not there yet with BBL; however, I thought it would be interesting to see what the markets might tell us. </p>



<p>The below analyses Bet365 odds (due to their early availability) for the purposes of BBL SuperCoach scoring. </p>



<p>I have used ChatGPT to help with ‘estimated probabilities’ based on the odds (taking account of things like the bookies’ margin). </p>



<p>There a many other factors to consider (role, venue etc.). </p>



<p>However, the aim is to utilise the odds as a factor in our decision-making.</p>



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<figure class="wp-block-image"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="http://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-2402783" srcset="https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-640x360.jpg 640w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-1200x675.jpg 1200w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1-800x450.jpg 800w, https://blog.scplaybook.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Email-Gareth.w@cecal.org_.au-Phone-9559-4013-1.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 639px) 98vw, (max-width: 1199px) 64vw, 770px" /></figure>



<p>Each round, I’ll take a look at the odds of relevant player markets for the key teams with upcoming doubles. </p>



<p>This round, I’m also looking at what the BBL winner market might tell us. </p>



<p>Odds below are as of 4 January.</p>



<p><strong>Sydney Sixers ($1.72) home to Brisbane Heat</strong></p>



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Player</strong></td><td><strong>Top Batter Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Batter Prob</strong></td><td><strong>Top Bowler Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated Top Bowler Prob</strong></td><td><strong>POTM Odds</strong></td><td><strong>Estimated POTM Prob</strong></td></tr><tr><td>MB Azam</td><td>4.00</td><td>16.4%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>9.00</td><td>10.3%</td></tr><tr><td>SA Abbott</td><td>41.00</td><td>1.6%</td><td>4.00</td><td>13.3%</td><td>10.00</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>D Hughes</td><td>5.00</td><td>13.1%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>JR Philippe</td><td>4.00</td><td>16.4%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>10.00</td><td>9.3%</td></tr><tr><td>M Henriques</td><td>5.00</td><td>13.1%</td><td>11.00</td><td>4.8%</td><td>11.00</td><td>8.4%</td></tr><tr><td>J Edwards</td><td>11.00</td><td>6.0%</td><td>5.50</td><td>9.7%</td><td>11.00</td><td>8.4%</td></tr><tr><td>B Dwarshuis</td><td>34.00</td><td>2.0%</td><td>4.00</td><td>13.3%</td><td>13.00</td><td>7.1%</td></tr><tr><td>H Kerr</td><td>41.00</td><td>1.6%</td><td>5.00</td><td>10.6%</td><td>19.00</td><td>4.9%</td></tr><tr><td>JC Silk</td><td>8.50</td><td>7.8%</td><td>–</td><td>–</td><td>19.00</td><td>4.9%</td></tr><tr><td>J Davies</td><td>21.00</td><td>3.2%</td><td>7.00</td><td>7.6%</td><td>21.00</td><td>4.4%</td></tr><tr><td>BA Manenti</td><td>81.00</td><td>0.8%</td><td>9.00</td><td>5.9%</td><td>23.00</td><td>4.0%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<p>Babar Azam has found form in time for the Sixers’ double. </p>



<p>He’s the favourite for Player of the Match, and represents a high-risk, high-reward Supercoach play this round.</p>



<p>Fellow top order Sixers Hughes and Phillipe are also high on the POTM list. </p>



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<p>If looking at cash generation, Hughes is probably the play, as his breakeven is over 100 less than Phillipe&#8217;s.</p>



<p>Abbott, Edwards, and Dwarshuis all represent great captaincy options this week. </p>



<p>Abbott’s ceiling is reflected by having the best POTM odds of the three. </p>



<p>Edwards looks the safe option, supported by respectable odds across batting, bowling, and POTM categories. </p>



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<p>Dwarshuis could be the POD captain play. </p>



<p>He is equal to Abbott in best bowler odds, and is always a chance of a late innings quick-fire 20.</p>



<p>Henriques sits well in both best batter and POTM odds. </p>



<p>At just 61k, he represents a feasible POD cheapie option. </p>



<p>Hayden Kerr is the third favourite for best bowler and has the all-important bat/bowl dual in SC. </p>



<p>Being in and out of the side, he seems an unnecessary risk, though. </p>



<a id='h29dH0bUSN912844H4ClNg' class='gie-single' href='https://www.gettyimages.com/detail/2254224123' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;' rel="noopener">Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'h29dH0bUSN912844H4ClNg',sig:'A8jIIWRodF3Rt0OKCqSRQiS8htrUr8zi5wotRQFCTl0=',w:'594px',h:'396px',items:'2254224123',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>



<p>Meanwhile, Joel Davies continues to impress, quietly averaging 61 points this season and is set to make plenty more cash. </p>



<p>The POTM and best bowler odds aren’t great for him. </p>



<p>This could more so reflect the quality of his teammates, though. </p>



<p>It’s also worth noting that he’s much shorter than Dwarshuis for best batter.</p>


BBL Supercoach | Market watch round 6

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